The voting began today in the North Tablelands by-election, so I thought I'd write a synopsis and preview of current facts and potential results.
Firstly, the Electorate: The North Tablelands state electorate (NSW) is based around the New England Tableland. Don't be confused with the New England federal electorate currently held by Tony Windsor; whilst New England does contain the North Tablelands electorate it also contains Tamworth wherein Tony Windsor gains most of his support. So we can't really come to any definitive conclusion for the seat of New England come September; what can be said is that if the Nationals barely scrape through or lose this seat there is surely no hope federally. North Tablelands has been held by retiring MP Richard Torbay since 1999 as an Independent seat; due to recent controversy Torbay has been forced to early retirement and any plans with the National Party for a Federal feature fell through.
Next, the Candidates: There are 7 candidates on the Ballot Paper and these consist of one Country Labor, one National, one Green, one Christian Democratic (Fred Nile Group) and three Independents.
These candidates, in no particular order are:
Silvana Nero for the Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group). Silvana is a former primary school teacher who obtained her Bachelor of Education at the University of New England. Nero has her own small business teaching children Italian (pre-school to year 6) and has trained overseas in Italian Universities. Nero is the CDPs candidate for the federal seat of Mackellar and recently announced her engagement to Fred Nile.
Herman Beyersdorf for the Country Labor Party. Beyersdorf is the current deputy mayor of Armidale. He has served on the Armidale Dumaresq Council for more than 21 years and has previously worked as the President of the UNE Branch of the NTEU (National Tertiary Education Union).
Adam Marshall for the National Party. Marshall was elected to the Gunnedah Council when he was 19; he became Deputy Mayor in '07 then Mayor in '08. He retired from Council in '12 before receiving nomination for the National Party when Richard Torbay resigned and winning nomination against many high profile National candidates.
Dora Koops for the Greens. This is Dora Koops first nomination and election, not too much to say about her other than it will be interesting to see how weak support for The Greens is in the general area of New England.
Jim Maher as an Independent. Maher has been Mayor of Armadale since the 2012 elections. In a successful Council career he was first elected in 2004 and became Deputy Mayor in 2008. He has been a senior lecturer at the University of New England for quite some time and holds many post-graduate degrees.
Katherine Nicholson as an Independent. Nicholson is currently Head Teacher of General Studies at Inverell TAFE Campus, she holds a degree in Communication and post-graduate degrees in Adult Education and Public Administration.
Bill Bush as an Independent. Bush is an independent Grazier in Gloucester, he is balancing between his farm which is down to only 60 breeding cattle and a disabled son.
Lastly, the Likely Outcome: We're looking at a pretty likely National Party Gain here and a win for young Adam Marshall. The reason for this outcome is quite simple really, before Torbay took over the seat as an Independent in 1999 it was a Nationals stronghold and given the current politcal climate I see this in no way changing for the seat of North Tablelands. The interesting thing to come from this by-election will be the performance of the Independents, whilst none have the profile of Windsor or Torbay (thus why National Party gain is so likely) they will give a small indication of voting preferences come September. Realistically though, anything less than an absolute landslide win for the National Party (75%-80%+) and we will have no real indication of the outcome for the federal seat of New England.
Thank you and goodbye,
~The Opine Observer
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