North Tablelands (NSW) by-election

The result is a foregone conclusion for this by-election; but what does it mean Federally for Tony Windsor? 

The voting began today in the North Tablelands by-election, so I thought I'd write a synopsis and preview of current facts and potential results.

Firstly, the Electorate: The North Tablelands state electorate (NSW) is based around the New England Tableland. Don't be confused with the New England federal electorate currently held by Tony Windsor; whilst New England does contain the North Tablelands electorate it also contains Tamworth wherein Tony Windsor gains most of his support. So we can't really come to any definitive conclusion for the seat of New England come September; what can be said is that if the Nationals barely scrape through or lose this seat there is surely no hope federally. North Tablelands has been held by retiring MP Richard Torbay since 1999 as an Independent seat; due to recent controversy Torbay has been forced to early retirement and any plans with the National Party for a Federal feature fell through.

Next, the Candidates: There are 7 candidates on the Ballot Paper and these consist of one Country Labor, one National, one Green, one Christian Democratic (Fred Nile Group) and three Independents.

These candidates, in no particular order are:

Silvana Nero for the Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group). Silvana is a former primary school teacher who obtained her Bachelor of Education at the University of New England. Nero has her own small business teaching children Italian (pre-school to year 6) and has trained overseas in Italian Universities. Nero is the CDPs candidate for the federal seat of Mackellar and recently announced her engagement to Fred Nile.

Herman Beyersdorf for the Country Labor Party. Beyersdorf is the current deputy mayor of Armidale. He has served on the Armidale Dumaresq Council for more than 21 years and has previously worked as the President of the UNE Branch of the NTEU (National Tertiary Education Union).

Adam Marshall for the National Party. Marshall was elected to the Gunnedah Council when he was 19; he became Deputy Mayor in '07 then Mayor in '08. He retired from Council in '12 before receiving nomination for the National Party when Richard Torbay resigned and winning nomination against many high profile National candidates.

Dora Koops for the Greens. This is Dora Koops first nomination and election, not too much to say about her other than it will be interesting to see how weak support for The Greens is in the general area of New England.

Jim Maher as an Independent. Maher has been Mayor of Armadale since the 2012 elections. In a successful Council career he was first elected in 2004 and became Deputy Mayor in 2008. He has been a senior lecturer at the University of New England for quite some time and holds many post-graduate degrees.

Katherine Nicholson as an Independent. Nicholson is currently Head Teacher of General Studies at Inverell TAFE Campus, she holds a degree in Communication and post-graduate degrees in Adult Education and Public Administration.

Bill Bush as an Independent. Bush is an independent Grazier in Gloucester, he is balancing between his farm which is down to only 60 breeding cattle and a disabled son.

Lastly, the Likely Outcome: We're looking at a pretty likely National Party Gain here and a win for young Adam Marshall. The reason for this outcome is quite simple really, before Torbay took over the seat as an Independent in 1999 it was a Nationals stronghold and given the current politcal climate I see this in no way changing for the seat of North Tablelands. The interesting thing to come from this by-election will be the performance of the Independents, whilst none have the profile of Windsor or Torbay (thus why National Party gain is so likely) they will give a small indication of voting preferences come September. Realistically though, anything less than an absolute landslide win for the National Party (75%-80%+) and we will have no real indication of the outcome for the federal seat of New England.

Thank you and goodbye,

~The Opine Observer

The Ashes Issues

Ah, The Ashes. The ultimate prize in the Cricketing world, more coveted than the Border/Gavaskar Trophy, higher tension than the “Friendship Cup” of the 1990s; surely the pinnacle. So, what is the Australian Cricke team using as a practice of the, often brutal, English swinging conditions? By playing a 50 Over Tournament of course! Sure some of the boys are touring with the Australia A Squad, but really this is far from good enough. We should be getting our less experienced players used to English conditions by playing as close to Test Match Cricket as possible and the Champions Trophy is not that.

Anyway, before I go on, I'm going to list our 16 Man Squad and my believed 12 man playing squad for the first test:

1. Michael Clarke (C)
2. Brad Haddin (VC) (WK)
3. David Warner
4. Jackson Bird
5. Ed Cowan
6. James Faulkner
7. Ryan Harris
8. Phil Hughes
9. Usman Khawaja
10. Nathan Lyon
11. James Pattinson
12. Chris Rogers
13. Peter Siddle
14. Mitchell Starc
15. Matthew Wade
16. Shane Watson

1. David Warner
2. Ed Cowan
3. Phil Hughes
4. Shane Watson
5. Michael Clarke (C)
6. Brad Haddin (VC) (WK)
7. ???
8. Mitchell Starc/Ryan Harris
9. James Pattinson
10. Peter Siddle
11. Nathan Lyon
12. James Faulkner

So, in the probable 1^st Test 12 Man Ashes Squad we've got a little bit of a hole don't we? Number 7 is completely bare and a rather curious conundrum due to the fact there is no one person who automatically slips into that role. I've placed Faulkner as 12^th Man as I see simply no way of him being selected unless Watson isn't bowling, then he'd slip in nicely as the bowling allrounder; but even if Watson isn't bowling I don't see Cricket Australia including an international debutante in the First Ashes Test -- wont happen.

So, who then? Wade? His batting is certainly his strength but will Haddin replacing him as first choice keeper have dented Wade's confidence? Probably. Is Wade in electric form? Not really. Hmm. Rogers perhaps? Maybe. He is in incredible form at the moment and English conditions have become his forte, but he is an opener; just like: Watson, Cowan, Hughes and Warner. I'm just not sure how he would fit into the side. Khawaja? Even less likely than Faulkner in my opinion. He's out of form and I fear out of luck. Australian Cricket crucified him last summer as they destroyed Hughes confidence and thus his fledgling international career when it was merely beginning. A few bad performances, maybe a bit of bad luck and you're gone – this obliterates young cricketers confidence which in turn affects their form which prohibits them from getting another call up.

We should be nurturing our young talents, if we had of continued with Hughes during the last English Based Ashes tour, we may not have had as many ups and downs with him as we have done over the past few years. (Remember those “The Next Bradman!” headlines? I certainly do.) Hughes deserved the entire Ashes tour to turn it around, especially since he had been averaging over 100 in First Class Cricket in England prior to that Ashes tour; 4 bad and unlucky dismissals later and he was gone – banished to the cricketing wilderness.

Sorry, where was I? Oh yes, number 7. Personally, I think they'll bring in a fourth quick (Harris or Starc whoever wasn't chosen first) and be slightly bottom heavy. Which is dangerous, considering the ominous form of Broad and Anderson. So, the game plan will be to bowl them out with a sub-par score and then to bat as well as we possibly can. I don't honestly think we can win the first test and a draw is even less likely considering English Conditions and the lovely Duke ball. So a first test loss is probable.

Thus the second test becomes extremely important and many changes will be made: Whoever fails worse out of Hughes and Cowan will be dropped for Rogers, the bowler out of Starc and Harris with the least helpful figures will be dropped for Bird who is regarded as the bowler with the best technique for the English conditions and lastly, if our batting failed dismally we will drop another fast bowler for Faulker who is a handy bat and a deadly bowler in the right conditions.

That is a better side, without a doubt. At what cost though? Either Hughes or Cowan are thrown to the dogs then Harris and Starc are both equally in trouble for a second test berth and thus they will be weighed down by that decisions for quite some time to come. In fact, if Harris is dropped I predict his retirement. I said it first right here on The Opine Observer. Fact of the matter though, is that this line of thinking simply is not forward thinking enough and not acceptable.

The 12 man Squad that should be playing (with future in mind) is this:

1. Hughes
2. Warner (VC)
3. Khawaja
4. Clarke (C)
5. Faulkner
6. Smith
7. Wade (WK)
8. Pattinson
9. Siddle
10. Bird
11. Lyon
12. Doolan

This side would surely lose a lot at first, but we need to be looking towards the future. The current squad has way too many players on the wrong side of 30 and that is the absolute best we've got. We've made the mistake of focusing on short term winning before, then when the better half of the team retired after the 5-0 Whitewash of England in Australia we were absolutely screwed. In fact, we are only just rebuilding the side to an acceptable level now. So, when all else is lost, the future is still ours. If we went with the young squad we could cement our future, but we wont because all we want is short term return from our cricketers. So we have: Rogers, Harris and Haddin all playing for Australia when they should be winding down their careers.

Well that was a long one wasn't it? Hopefully someone will heed my advice, they wont, but one can hope.

~The Opine Observer

Bits and Bobs

I've thought long and hard about what I was going to devote my first “real” post to. There have been many things in popular media that I felt deserved attention, but also felt that they deserved a more experienced set of eyes on them than I can possibly offer at this point. The terrorist related murder of a 25 year old father in Britain, the tornado and the destruction it caused in America and the rejection of the “Right to Die” Bill in New South Wales. So, in short, I feel a fair compromise is a quick dedication to these events before moving onto my main topic. A topic I am in no way an amateur; Cricket. Yes, I'm a novice when it comes to Politics and even Doctor Who, a novice with a passion, but a novice nonetheless. But Cricket? I've been playing, studying and watching the art of Cricket for 15 or more years now, so I feel entitled to comment on that.

My heart goes out to the innocent father struck down in London, simply because of his occupation, by so called “Islamic Terrorists”. That said, I in no way blame Islam; nor do I blame real Muslims for this atrocity. The extremists are misguided and do not follow the real Islamic faith at all; they are denounced by the real Muslims unanimously and refuse to believe anything other than what they've been brainwashed with. Speaking of, this whole situation is eerily similar to the violent Cults (The KKK and The Branch Davidian's (Waco) come to mind) that plagued the US years ago; they're denounced unanimously by Christians and the World alike. So, what is the difference? Simply put, the current terrorists claim to be Muslim and people don't like something they don't understand. Its too easy for the popular media to take cheap shots and easy ratings by blaming Islam as a whole for a product of extremist intolerance. The sooner popular media realises this and we, as a whole, stop blaming real Muslims for what some evil misguided people do, the better. Tolerance breeds tolerance people, you cant expect people to be tolerant of us when we are not tolerant of them.

Again, I feel the utmost sympathy for those who lost everything in America recently. People have lost their homes and businesses as well as their children, brothers, sisters, mothers or fathers. To lose so much and to have the strength to go on is absolutely amazing. What I don't understand, however, is why they build “up” again in Tornado Alley. Surely underground homes would be the safer option and whilst more expensive in the short term, since you're not rebuilding your home once a decade it would quickly be the cheaper option too. A safer and cheaper option should be a “godsend” for these people. We do this in Coober Pedy simply due to the extreme heat, so why not in America when there are Tornado's to contend with?

Lastly, politicians of Australia -- Why cant people choose when they die? What gives you the right to choose this most personal of decision? What makes you think you can understand the pain these people are going through? They do not come to a decision to want to end their lives “Just Because”; its the hardest decision they will ever have to make in their lives and you are taking this choice away from them. You are all heartless monsters and I hope one day you find yourself in the position these people are in but not being able to choose to end the pain because the Government says “Nein!”. Take this issue and Gay Marriage to a Referendum, let the Australian people decide. Not what you think the Australian people want. I think the way Australia is at the moment you'd get a “Yes” to Right to Die and a “No” to Gay Marriage and thus we're sorted on two long running and (in the grand scheme of things) unimportant issues for 5-10 years. Who knows? By then it may well be Yes, Yes – no one knows.

Well look at that, I ended up dedicating my entire first post to recent popular media events. I guess I was up for it after all. Cricket is for next time, readers.

~The Opine Observer

Introductions.

My my, introductions are hard sometimes. Especially when said introduction heavily influences what, if any, readers one gets to ones site; an equal balance of intrigue and information with a pinch of humour to keep readers entertained. All this will be provided with a level of sophistication that I believe you, as a reader, deserve. No 'lulz' or 'omg', just us, interesting topics and intellectual debate. This Blog will contain editorials mostly, but I will occassionally delve into reporting facts as best I can.

So, I hear you ask: What is this blog about and why should I possibly read it? You'll be getting from me: Sports, politics and sci-fi mainly, but really a bit of anything and everything; all of which is open to comment and debate.

Personally speaking; I'm a 20-something male with a passion for the Australian political landscape, various sports including AFL, NRL, Cricket and Doctor Who mainly but I do dabble with other sci-fi. Politically speaking I was raised in a strict Center-Left household, but am finding myself currently agreeing with Center-Right parties more; I do pride myself on being unbiased and this is what I intend to give you politically.

Until my first real post, I bid you adieu.

~The Opine Observer